1 Trend Is Holding, 1 Isn't
October 31, 2008
First, the trend that looks like it will end its 44-year run on November 4. Here's my post from over 20 months ago:
February 09, 2007
Stunning U.S. Election Trend
Quickly, off the top of your head, would you assume it's advantageous to have been an elected official in or representing the State of New York if you're running for President of the United States? What about Georgia or Arkansas? The answer may surprise you, as the following score shows:
U.S. Presidents Elected* from 1964 - 2004
# of terms by Presidents that served in/for states with capitals SOUTH of Washington, D.C. = 11
# of terms by Presidents that served in/for states with capitals NORTH of Washington, D.C. = 0
* Ford assumed the Presidency and was not elected, so is not counted here
Told
you it was stunning! I'll follow up with some high-level bios for
every President elected from LBJ to W, along with 3 current
front-runners for each of the 2 major parties. Wonder if the Party
Leaderships pay any attention to this kind of thing?
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October 31 commentary on that post: clearly, Obama represents a northern state, and McCain does not. But at least McCain made it to the nominee, coming from WAY behind against representatives of northern states to do so!
Now, for a trend that looks to continue with Obama:
February 28, 2007
You'd Better Be Ivy League If You Want To Be President
Tying in a bit with an earlier post on the strength of university networking vs. former places of employment networking, we take a look at past U.S. Presidents and current hopefuls. The winners of the last 5 Presidential elections, going back to 1988, all have Ivy League educations, be it undergrad, law/graduate, or both. Harvard and Yale are the players here. Among the early primary favorites for both parties, the advantage would go to Hillary (Yale Law), Romney and Obama (both Harvard men). And no breaking news here, but if Romney were to be elected to the Oval Office, he would become the second Presidential holder of an MBA (though he also holds a Law degree and therefore would not be the rare non-lawyer President; the current Bush was the 1st President to hold an MBA). Hillary and Obama each hold degrees in Law.
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October 31 commentary on that post: McCain was no slouch, attending the Naval Academy, but it wasn't Ivy.
Finally, this last one wasn't a "trend" so much as a very early call on what could come to pass:
February 24, 2007
Presidential Contest Could Be Over Before It Starts
Unbelievably (at least in my mind), Oprah Winfrey has already backed
a candidate for the 2008 Presidential election. It's only February of
'07. As my "O Power" post from earlier in the week suggested, I am in
awe of the influence she has over the women of America, and women make
up the majority of the electorate. She's also very influential among
the black community, although I would argue that her universal appeal
to all women is more broad-based than her appeal to African-Americans.
She's keeping her options open with a nod to Hillary and how great she
thinks she is, but is now officially on record as supporting Barrack
Obama, after comments made on Ellen's show.
Here's a link
to an "outside the U.S." perspective on the battle for star power
between Barrack Obama and Hillary Clinton, which could have a
significant impact on the 2008 campaign. It's not the ONLY thing that
matters in the national election between Democrat and Republican, as
evidenced by Bush's two triumphs over heavily Hollywood-backed Democrat
opponents, but in determining the Democratic candidate who will
actually be on the ballot next November, it is very significant.
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