Faith + Reason = Truth

Two web buzz words, toe to toe.  One represents the spreading out to a thin tail of ever-overwhelming choice (such as movie title choices found at and, more impressively, actually rented from Netflix), and the other scientifically demonstrates the self-reinforcing power of concentration in the hands of fewer and more influential players (i.e. GOOGLE, Youtube, iPod).  Which is the better objective for a developing business plan?

That depends on how ambitious, realistic, risk-averse or embracing, etc. the founder is.  Almost by definition, an aspiring internet startup founder (or any entrepreneur for that matter) is the embodiment of a cup that floweth over with abundant ambition and appetite for risk, accompanied by a self-opinion, business outlook, and world view that is entirely unrealistic and skewed to the extreme.  This combination will naturally tend toward the predictions of Network Effects theory, which hold that if one can simply hook into (or, better yet, become) one of a handful of inordinately powerful influential nodes, the benefits of this happy occurrence will quickly cascade and accrue to the fledgling business, resulting in the absolute certainty of it being bought out for 10 figures less than a year after the plan is printed on the inkjet.  One slight problem with this strategy:  almost everyone has it.  Isn't there a better alternative?

Yes!  Thanks to Chris Anderson's observed and named Long Tail theory/phenomenon/syndrome, one has only to choose some obscure target to focus their passion on, then sit back while the other 8 people in the world who share that passion gobble it up!  If it's a book or musical output, then the budding Long Tailer can realistically count on 10's of $ flowing into the account, if not hundreds!  The downside (with this kind of upside, you KNEW there had to be a dark alternative possibility, didn't you?) is that the founder will never become rich, will never master the universe, will never have their face plastered on the cover of Wired (unless they, like I, submitted a digital pic a few months ago for my very own personalized cover of Wired, which should arrive in my mailbox any week now!).

As always, the choice is yours:  possible millions, or guaranteed tens.  Either way, you will be changing the world by the very act of your attempt to do so, and at least you'll get that "I gotta start a BUSINESS" bug out of your system once and for all.  My skepticism might be misguided, but the numbers for both theories are squarely with me, and who am I to argue with a good buzz word (or two)?