Black Swans, or, The Illusion of Predictability
April 06, 2007
I have added Amazon links to 2 books by Nassim Nicholas Taleb at the bottom of the left column. Fooled By Randomness was published several years back, while The Black Swan is due out on April 17. I cannot recommend them strenuously enough! Each addresses the role of uncertainty and, more importantly, unpredictability in all facets of life including but not limited to investing, no matter how intelligent or advanced we believe our intellect and computational/analytical creations to be. Though I cannot do him or his material justice, I do attempt to espouse his observations to those who are interested, for the express purpose of enlightening people's perspectives while making them aware of their station in life; that is to say, although luck may favor the prepared mind, no mind can be prepared for that which has never occurred nor been foreseen, and much of the causality at the root of our daily walk through life is rooted in just such unforeseen events.
Knowledge makes for a boundless, infinite area of study, reflection, introspection, and seeking out understanding or answers. Perhaps it is such a limitless, fertile field for the precise reason that there are no answers, there is no knowledge; only awareness and observation and pattern recognition, which enable us to actively avoid pitfalls or attempt to replicate previous agreeable outcomes. Taleb eloquently and entertainingly spins tales from history, philosophy, financial and other markets, and his own neighbors and acquaintances for your reading pleasure, and I echo many reviewers of his works when I say that your very outlook and perspective on life, your part in it, and what is and (most frequently) is not within your control or even your predictive ability will be altered for having opened your mind to them.
Comments